India-Nepal and Beyond

In the map, Nepal looks small a sliver between India and China. But in the mind map of geopolitics, it is a living chessboard. It plays well but with influenced move. It is one of the most high pressure point that connect two different oldest civilization.

For India, Nepal is not just a neighbour, it’s family.The same religion, festivals, mountains, and rivers connect both. But in geopolitics, emotions don’t always mean security. And that’s where India’s real challenge begins. India always believed cultural closeness would keep Nepal on its side. But Nepal, like every growing nation, wants to make its own decisions. It wants freedom, not protection.So while India speaks of shared history, China offers shared future  and that attracts attention.

The Law of Dependence

According to the law of systemic dependency in geopolitics 

The smaller nations orbit around the economic gravity of the bigger one that offers more immediate survival.

So even if cultural roots tie Nepal to India, China’s financial gravity has begun to bend its trajectory. Trade, roads, technology  these are not just infrastructure; they’re psychological traps. Once dependency forms, influence becomes natural.

As the ancient strategist Sun Tzu said:

“Control the supply lines, and you control the mind.”

This follows the Maslowian Law of National Behaviour (There is no such law for Nation but even if you just apply, you will get the same in result) where a country, like a person, first seeks survival, then recognition. Nepal has not yet reached “self-actualization.” It’s still seeking security and whoever provides it, wins its trust.

Nepal is still climbing that ladder. It has not yet reached “self-actualization.” It’s still searching for who provides more safety, not what builds more sovereignty. 

That’s why aid, loans, and projects though wrapped as friendship act like psychological reinforcements. They make a nation feel dependent, even while calling it partnership.

                                        

 Here is the chart showing Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) in Nepal by Country (FY 2022–23)  with India as the largest investor, followed by China and other nations.

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Territorial dispute: 

The territorial dispute is about a 372-sq-km area that includes Limpiadhura, Lipulekh, and Kalapani at the India-Nepal-China trijunction in Uttarakhand’s Pithoragarh district. Nepal has claimed for long that these areas belong to it both historically and evidently.

• During 2024: The decision by Nepal’s cabinet to include the new map on its currency notes in 2024 has reignited tensions between the two countries.

 If you’ve read the book by Acemoglu “Why Nations Fail,” you already know  nations fall not because of enemies, but because of weak institutions and the recent GenZ protection shows it all.

 India invests in roads, power, and education not to trap, but to connect.China, on the other hand, follows a different play. Its aid is fast, shiny, and strategic built to expand its global power network under the Belt and Road vision. While India works through trust and time, China works through debt and design.

 So basically, India builds partnership, China builds presence. And in the long run, only partnership lasts.

Primary References & Sources:

•  Sources including official government reports, reputed media publications, and global economic databases.

• Book Reference: Why Nations Fail — Daron Acemoglu & James A. Robinson (Crown Publishing, 2012).